Module 3: Models of Human-Environmental Interaction
Week 6 Predictions, Uncertainty and Surprise
Lecture 6: Prediction in environmental planning [Tues, May 3, 2022]
Objective: To explore the limitation of ecological predictions and social dynamics, approaches to dealing with uncertainty and understand shock and surprise in modeling coupled human-natural systems.
Readings:
→ Carpenter, S. R., and L. H. Gunderson. 2001. Coping with collapse: ecological and social dynamics in ecosystem management. BioScience 51: 451–457.
→ Schindler, D.E. and Hilborn, R., 2015. Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change. Science, 347(6225), pp.953-954.
→ Alberti, M., 2008. Ch 9. Futures of Urban Ecosystems, in Advances in Urban Ecology: Integrating Humans and Ecological Processes in Urban Ecosystems, pp. 225-242, Springer, New York, NY.
Practicum 6: Living for the city: Exploring the social-ecological drivers of urban biodiversity
Guest speaker: Chris Schell [Thurs, May 5, 2022]
Readings:
→ Schell, C.J., Dyson, K., Fuentes, T.L., Des Roches, S., Harris, N.C., Miller, D.S., Woelfle-Erskine, C.A. and Lambert, M.R., 2020. The ecological and evolutionary consequences of systemic racism in urban environments. Science, 369(6510), p.eaay4497.
→ Locke, D.H., Hall, B., Grove, J.M., Pickett, S.T., Ogden, L.A., Aoki, C., Boone, C.G. and O’Neil-Dunne, J.P., 2021. Residential housing segregation and urban tree canopy in 37 US Cities. npj urban sustainability, 1(1), pp.1-9.
→ Magle, S.B., Fidino, M., Sander, H.A., Rohnke, A.T., Larson, K.L., Gallo, T., Kay, C.A., Lehrer, E.W., Murray, M.H., Adalsteinsson, S.A. and Ahlers, A.A., 2021. Wealth and urbanization shape medium and large terrestrial mammal communities. Global change biology, 27(21), pp.5446-5459.
+ Chamberlain, D., Reynolds, C., Amar, A., Henry, D., Caprio, E. and Batáry, P., 2020. Wealth, water and wildlife: Landscape aridity intensifies the urban luxury effect. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 29(9), pp.1595-1605.
+ Leong, M., Dunn, R.R. and Trautwein, M.D., 2018. Biodiversity and socioeconomics in the city: a review of the luxury effect. Biology Letters, 14(5), p.20180082.
Memo 2: Scenario Methods [Due today on Canvas]
Week 7: Detecting Regime Shifts
Lecture 7: Indicators of resilience [Tues, May 10, 2022]
Readings:
→ Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, et al. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53–59. doi: 10.1038/nature08227.
→ Reynolds, H.L., Mincey, S.K., Montoya, R.D., Hamlin, S., Sullivan, A., Thapa, B., Wilson, J., Rosing, H., Jarzen, J. and Grove, J.M., 2021. Green infrastructure for urban resilience: a trait‐based framework. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.
→ Brauman, K.A., Garibaldi, L.A., Polasky, S., Aumeeruddy-Thomas, Y., Brancalion, P.H., DeClerck, F., Jacob, U., Mastrangelo, M.E., Nkongolo, N.V., Palang, H. and Pérez-Méndez, N., 2020. Global trends in nature’s contributions to people. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(51), pp.32799-32805.
Post Discussion 3: Resilience and Regime Shifts (Due today)
Practicum 7: Selecting Indicators of Resilience [Thurs, May 12, 2022]
Readings:
→ Puget Sound Partnership. 2015. State of the Sound.
→ Layzer, J. 2008. Chapter 6 Averting Ecological Collapse in California’s Bay Delta. Natural Experiments: Ecosystem-Based Management and the Environment. MIT Press.
Assignment 3: Resilience Indicators [Due May 19, 2022 on Canvas]
