Module 2: Methods of Environmental Assessment
Week 4 Scenarios: Imagining the possible
Lecture 4: Scenario Planning [Tues, Apr 19, 2022]
Objective: Explore adaptive cycles in the context of coupled human systems. Discuss indicators to monitor resilience. Understand thresholds and criticality. Understand adaptive change.
Readings:
→ Peterson, G.D., Graeme S. Cumming, and Stephen R. Carpenter. 2003. Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World. Conservation Biology 17(2):358-366.
→ Alberti, M., 2016. ch. 9. Cities That Think Like Planets: Complexity, Resilience, and Innovation in Hybrid Ecosystems. UW Press.
→ Oteros-Rozas, E., B. Martín-López, T. Daw, E. L. Bohensky, J. Butler, R. Hill, J. Martin-Ortega, A. Quinlan, F. Ravera, I. Ruiz-Mallén, M. Thyresson, J. Mistry, I. Palomo, G. D. Peterson, T. Plieninger, K. A. Waylen, D. Beach, I. C. Bohnet, M. Hamann, J. Hanspach, K. Hubacek, S. Lavorel and S. Vilardy 2015. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies. Ecology and Society 20(4):32.
Post Discussion 1: Cities as Complex systems (Due today on blog)
Practicum 4: Developing Scenario Hypotheses [Thurs, Apr 21, 2022]
Readings:
→ Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S.R., Lenton, T.M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J. van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., Vandermeer, J. (2012). Anticipating Critical Transitions. Science, 338, 344–348.
→ Cumming G. S., Olsson P., Chapin III F. S. and C.S. Holling. Resilience, experimentation, and scale mismatches in social-ecological landscapes. Landscape Ecol. DOI 10.1007/s10980-012-9725-4.
→ Spotswood EN, Beller EE, Grossinger R, et al. 2021. The biological deserts fallacy: cities in their landscapes contribute more than we think to regional biodiversity. Bioscience 71: 148–60.
+ van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley, New York.
Assignment 02: Scenario Logics [Due Apr 28, 2022 on Canvas]
Week 5 Resilience Assessment
Lecture 5: Adaptive Change and Assessment of Resilience [Tues, Apr 26, 2022]
Objective: Explore the role of prediction and predictive models. Understand conceptual models of coupled human natural systems. Learn principles of system modeling. Learn how to specify and implement conceptual models. Understand concepts of model calibration and validation
Readings:
→ Peterson, G., C. R. Allen, and C. S. Holling. 1998. Ecological resilience, biodiversity and scale. Ecosystems 1(1): 6-18.
→ Carpenter, S. R., B. H. Walker, J. M. Anderies, and N. Abel. 2001. From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what? Ecosystems 4: 765–781.
→ Carpenter, S., Brock, W. and Hanson, P., 1999. Ecological and social dynamics in simple models of ecosystem management. Conservation Ecology, 3(2).
+ Alberti, M., 2016. ch. 5. Cities That Think Like Planets: Complexity, Resilience, and Innovation in Hybrid Ecosystems. UW Press.
+ Alberti, M., 2016. ch. 7. Cities That Think Like Planets: Complexity, Resilience, and Innovation in Hybrid Ecosystems. UW Press.
+ Alberti, M., 2010. Maintaining ecological integrity and sustaining ecosystem function in urban areas. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2(3), pp.178-184.
+ Felson, A.J., Bradford, M.A. and Terway, T.M., 2013. Promoting Earth Stewardship through urban design experiments. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 11(7), pp.362-367.
Memo 01: Complex Coupled Human-Natural Systems [Due today on Canvas]
Practicum 5:
Guest speaker: Timon McPhearson [Thurs, Apr 28, 2022]
Building resilience, sustainability, and equity together in complex urban systems
Readings:
→ McPhearson, T., M. Raymond, C., Gulsrud, N., Albert, C., Coles, N., Fagerholm, N., Nagatsu, M., Olafsson, A.S., Soininen, N., and Vierikko, K. (2021). Radical changes for transformations to a good Anthropocene. npj Urban Sustainability. 1(5)
→ Elmqvist, Thomas, Erik Andersson, Niki Frantzeskaki, Timon McPhearson, Per Olsson, Owen Gaffney, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Carle Folke. 2019. Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century. Nature Sustainability 2: 267–273
+ Elmqvist, T., Andersson, E., McPhearson, T., Bai, X., Bettencourt, L., Brondizio, E., Colding, J., Daily, G., Folke, C., Grimm, N. and Haase, D., 2021. Urbanization in and for the Anthropocene. npj Urban Sustainability, 1(1), pp.1-6.
D2: What are scenarios? (Due today on Blog)
